Fundamental Analysis in Forex Trading

Jun 10th, 2008 | By admin | Category: Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis, which is usually used only as a means to predict long-term trends, is an extremely difficult strategy in the Forex market. But it is notable that some traders trade short term strictly on news releases. There are many different fundamental indicators of the currency values released at different times. The following are a few of them.

 

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI)
  • Non-farm Payrolls
  • Durable Goods
  • Retail Sales
  • Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

The economy of a country goes through a basic business cycle, and there are a lot of indicators available to the investor to measure where a particular economy is at any given time. The analysis would involve matching the stage of the cycle with its impact on the value of its currency. The normal economic cycle consists of periods of inflation and deflation with peaks and troughs in between. Certain indicators such as the Gross National Product (GNP), and current prime interest rates can give a good idea of the stage of the economy at any given time.

Each of these indicators would tend to impact currency valuation in different ways, and sometimes would even vary from country to country. In the United States, rising interest rates are normally associated with currency deflation, for example, and it is factors such as this that are the heart of fundamental analysis. An example of this can be seen right now as the usd dollar is having a hard time with other currencies due to the problems with the housing and mortgage foreclosures

This analysis can become quite detailed, but the focus remains on the country and its economy. Every factor that impacts the country and its economy can play a role in the value of the currency, and understanding these factors are the tools the fundamental analyzers uses to guide their investment strategy.

It is important to note that these are not the only fundamental factors that you have to study. There are many types of meetings where you get some quotes and commentary that can influence markets just as much as any report. Such meetings are usually conducted in order to discuss any inflation, interest rates and other effects that may affect currency values. Sometimes, even the way things are worded while addressing some matters like the Federal Reserve chairman’s comments on interest rates; can result in a volatile market. Two crucial meetings that you have to look out for are the Federal Open Market Committee and Humphrey Hawkins Hearings.

 

Reading reports and commentaries will help Forex analysts to get a better understanding of any and all long-term market trends and also help short-term traders to get benefited from extraordinary happenings. Make sure that you always keep an economic calendar with you to know when these reports get released. Your broker may also be able to provide you with similar information

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